VoIP - the beginning of a new revolution
 VoIP represents the beginning of a revolution where phone meets web, e-mail, and TV in the same handheld terminal. In global terms, the Internet-based media convergence will see its full breakthrough within the next five to seven years, predicts Danish IT guru Preben Meier.
"RTX will be the first to step into that world with their LAN Cordless DUALphone. Providing on-screen services like weather forecasts, traffic information, ticket reservation, and sports results right on the terminal’s integrated display, RTX takes today’s Internet telephony a step further", states Preben Meier. Telephony will move from being a separate, stand-alone function to being part of a broad offering of services accessible from each handheld device. This is how the Danish IT fortune-teller outlines the current situation for VoIP globally: Users save money on telephony, telecom operators experience a minor percentage decline in turnover, and the competition on the market increases. However, that situation will change.
Critical mass
"What we will be seeing now and the coming year or so is that VoIP will catch on for real and will reach a critical mass when we are no longer forced to use a PC or an unhandy phone. We will see the emergence of handy, cordless terminals. Until now, the development of VoIP was first driven by nerds eager to save money, then the technology became increasingly user-friendly, and now the focus is changing towards increased functionality, exactly as we see it in the new LAN DUALphone, thereby making also ordinary people aware of VoIP. Now, the driver will be functionality for the average user, and in a few years, perhaps just three years or so, VoIP will become the rule, rather than the exception", Preben Meier predicts.
Intelligent agents
In the coming years, the functionality on the terminal side will gradually increase, and voice communication will suddenly become part of a full range of information services. In the form of a handheld terminal, we will get a device offering an endless range of additional possibilities, for instance remote control of TV and video.
"Each of us will have small internet-based software agents installed on our terminals – intelligent helpers acting on our behalf to help and guide us around. We have already taken a step in that direction: How many of us have a secretary today? On my VoIP phone I can book my own flight tickets and make appointments, so the terminal goes a long way towards replacing functions which would previously require the involvement of people – although, of course, it won’t replace the wife ...",
Preben Meier assures, a smile on his voice. He believes that in our private lives we will see the development of new services for VoIP with focus on three main areas: entertainment and communication, energy management and optimisation, safety and security (alarms and surveillance).
Media convergence
"SIP will be the integrating element in the communication of the future, enabling you to share information with others. If it is convenient for you to share information with your family, you will sooner or later be able to send it straight from your handheld terminal to the TV screen. The terminal will become an information hub for the family. And the development of the Internet will ensure that these devices will increasingly be able to communicate with each other and take on each other’s functionalities. For instance, within a few years, we shall see devices converge with and be able to remotely control the TV, and we shall be able to watch TV transmissions on devices in small picture formats, a service which you can already subscribe to via the Internet today.
Transmission of TV signals over the Internet will become just as widespread as VoIP, but will happen later. TV as an independent concept will disappear over the next six to seven years, and by then the full media convergence will be a reality – perhaps starting in Europe and Asia, as Korea, together with Scandinavia, has the highest penetration of broadband services", says Preben Meier.
The key to the future
"Telecom operators will experience a certain pressure when VoIP gains ground, but on the other hand, they will have a magnificent business opportunity in the combination of the different networks, the Internet and mobile networks. To them, the key to the future will be the ability to work across the networks, creating higher-level Internet-based services.
They need to experiment with the creation of cross-platform services and exploit the interest among the most sophisticated customer segments, accounting for some 10-15% of the users. Later, the new services can be rolled out to the average customers. The two DUALphones marketed by RTX are the first examples of handheld terminals/devices operating across networks and standards. In global terms, a few telecom operators are currently working full swing on VoIP development, but this does not apply to the overall majority. In Denmark, however, TDC is clearly at the forefront of developments", Preben Meier thinks.
Market changes
"Existing telecom operators will experience some competition. Particularly in the US, alternative infrastructures are likely to emerge, primarily aiming to free users from wired technologies. It started in New York City four-five years ago with Wireless LAN, and I believe we will be seeing the same trend in several metropolises." Particularly in Denmark, telecom operators experience competition from a different front, namely from power companies trying their luck with an offer of broadband services.
Information workplace
In the near future, VoIP will affect not only the private user with new functions – also in the workplace things will converge. For instance, when Preben Meier is interviewed by a journalist, the time, phone number and required document information will be shown on the display:
"When did I last communicate with you or others about this topic? Which background documents do I have? In short: I will get an overview which makes it easier to speak to the journalist.
The next step at the workplace will be an increased focus on collaboration services making it easier for the participants in a meeting to collaborate. They will automa-tically receive the same information; they will see the same documents, share the same calendars, and the work will be saved in the same project folders. In two to three years, these services will become context aware, which means that they will automatically take account of the context in which they will be used." |
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